Compiled Sun 10 March 2019
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the=
Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclon=
e Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
TC HALEH has travelled into the South Ocean, and TC IDAI is in-between Mada=
gascar and Mozambique.
The MJO wave of increased activity is travelling east across the Indian Oce=
an, and may reach northern Australia over next few weeks encouraging the fo=
rmation of a monsoon trough, followed by another possible period of Tropica=
l Cyclone formation in the South Pacific late in March.
Rain in the past week has faded in the South Pacific, but intensified acros=
s the equator around Papua New Guinea and along the ITCZ in western and cen=
tral pacific. See trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlati=
As is usual at this time of the year, as the overhead sun travels from 5S t=
o 3S, a "mirror Convergence Zone" of the ITCZ has formed just south of the =
equator in the eastern Pacific.
This "mirror CZ" may last for a month or two, affecting those sailing betwe=
en Galapagos and Marquesas.
SPCZ=3DSouth Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is rebuilding over Papua New Guinea and around Fiji, and remains w=
There are some near equatorial westerly winds along the northern coasts of =
Papua New Guinea and western Solomons, and a Tropical Depression may form b=
etween PNG and Solomons by end of this week and drift southwards.
There is a weak convergence zone around southern parts of French Polynesia =
Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH over southern NZ is expected to travel off to northeast.
Next HIGH travelling eastwards across Bass Strait by Wednesday and then aro=
und southern NZ on Thursday and then off to the east.
Next HIGH is likely to travel southeastwards across Tasmania around Sat/Sun=
Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand
Trough that crossed the North island on Friday developed a Low over Aucklan=
d on Saturday and this is expected to travel slowly southwards towards Chat=
hams by mid-week then fade.
Trough from Southern Ocean expected to intensify over Tasman sea on Tuesday=
then cross South Island on Wednesday and North Island on Thursday followed=
by a brief southerly flow.
Low is expected to deepen off Sydney on Friday and then go southwards.
Panama to Marquesas
There should be good northerly wind for starters around Panama until local =
Wednesday and then light winds until late next week. There is a good tail =
current to north end of Galapagos, then go to 6S 100W, to avoid the buildin=
g "mirror convergence zone" along around 5 South,
Port Vallarta to Marquesas
Winds around Puerto Vallarta are likely to be best for departure around loc=
al Tuesday otherwise rather light for starters. Weak ITCZ likely between 6N=
and 3N, and then a "mirror CZ" near 3 to 5S.
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see=
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe=
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is firstname.lastname@example.org or txt 6427 7762212